Uncertain Judgements Eliciting Experts Probabilities 1st Edition by Anthony O’Hagan, Caitlin Buck, Alireza Daneshkhah, Richard Eiser, Paul Garthwaite, David Jenkinson, Jeremy Oakley, Tim Rakow, Stephen Senn, Marian Scott, Peter Bloomfield ISBN 978-0470029992 0470029994

Uncertain Judgements Eliciting Experts Probabilities 1st Edition by Anthony O’Hagan, Caitlin E. Buck, Alireza Daneshkhah, J. Richard Eiser, Paul H. Garthwaite, David J. Jenkinson, Jeremy E. Oakley, Tim Rakow, Stephen Senn, Marian Scott, Peter Bloomfield- Ebook PDF Instant Download/Delivery: 978-0470029992, 0470029994 
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Product details: 

ISBN 10:0470029994 

ISBN 13: 978-0470029992

Author: Anthony O’Hagan, Caitlin E. Buck, Alireza Daneshkhah, J. Richard Eiser, Paul H. Garthwaite, David J. Jenkinson, Jeremy E. Oakley, Tim Rakow, Stephen Senn, Marian Scott, Peter Bloomfield

Elicitation is the process of extracting expert knowledge about some unknown quantity or quantities, and formulating that information as a probability distribution. Elicitation is important in situations, such as modelling the safety of nuclear installations or assessing the risk of terrorist attacks, where expert knowledge is essentially the only source of good information. It also plays a major role in other contexts by augmenting scarce observational data, through the use of Bayesian statistical methods. However, elicitation is not a simple task, and practitioners need to be aware of a wide range of research findings in order to elicit expert judgements accurately and reliably. Uncertain Judgements introduces the area, before guiding the reader through the study of appropriate elicitation methods, illustrated by a variety of multi-disciplinary examples.

This is achieved by:

• Presenting a methodological framework for the elicitation of expert knowledge incorporating findings from both statistical and psychological research.
• Detailing techniques for the elicitation of a wide range of standard distributions, appropriate to the most common types of quantities.
• Providing a comprehensive review of the available literature and pointing to the best practice methods and future research needs.
• Using examples from many disciplines, including statistics, psychology, engineering and health sciences.
• Including an extensive glossary of statistical and psychological terms.

An ideal source and guide for statisticians and psychologists with interests in expert judgement or practical applications of Bayesian analysis, Uncertain Judgements will also benefit decision-makers, risk analysts, engineers and researchers in the medical and social sciences.

Table of contents: 

1 Fundamentals of Probability and Judgement
2 The Elicitation Context
3 The Psychology of Judgement Under Uncertainty
4 The Elicitation of Probabilities
5 Eliciting Distributions – General
6 Eliciting and Fitting a Parametric Distribution
7 Eliciting Distributions – Uncertainty and Imprecision
8 Evaluating Elicitation
9 Multiple Experts
10 Published Examples of the Formal Elicitation of Expert Opinion
11 Guidance on Best Practice
12 Areas for Research

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Tags: Anthony O’Hagan, Caitlin Buck, Alireza Daneshkhah, Richard Eiser, Paul Garthwaite, David Jenkinson, Jeremy Oakley, Tim Rakow, Stephen Senn, Marian Scott, Peter Bloomfield, Uncertain Judgements, Eliciting Experts