The Black Swan The Impact of the Highly Improbable Second Edition by Nassim Nicholas Taleb ISBN 978-0812973815 081297381X

The Black Swan The Impact of the Highly Improbable Second Edition by Nassim Nicholas Taleb – Ebook PDF Instant Download/Delivery:  978-0812973815, 081297381X 
Full download The Black Swan The Impact of the Highly Improbable Second Edition after payment

Product details: 

ISBN 10:  081297381X 

ISBN 13: 978-0812973815

Author: Nassim Nicholas Taleb

The Black Swan is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand. The other books in the series are Fooled by Randomness, Antifragile, Skin in the Game, and The Bed of Procrustes.

A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives.

Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don’t know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the “impossible.”

For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. In this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don’t know, and this second edition features a new philosophical and empirical essay, “On Robustness and Fragility,” which offers tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan world.

Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications, The Black Swan will change the way you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. The Black Swan is a landmark book—itself a black swan.

Praise for Nassim Nicholas Taleb

“The most prophetic voice of all.”—GQ

Praise for The Black Swan

“[A book] that altered modern thinking.”—The Times (London)

“A masterpiece.”—Chris Anderson, editor in chief of Wired, author of The Long Tail

“Idiosyncratically brilliant.”—Niall Ferguson, Los Angeles Times

“The Black Swan changed my view of how the world works.”—Daniel Kahneman, Nobel laureate

“[Taleb writes] in a style that owes as much to Stephen Colbert as it does to Michel de Montaigne. . . . We eagerly romp with him through the follies of confirmation bias [and] narrative fallacy.”—The Wall Street Journal

“Hugely enjoyable—compelling . . . easy to dip into.”—Financial Times

“Engaging . . . The Black Swan has appealing cheek and admirable ambition.”—The New York Times Book Review

Table of contents: 

Part I – Umberto Eco’s Antilibrary: How We Seek Validation

1. Umberto Eco’s Antilibrary, or How We Seek Validation. The Apprenticeship of an Empirical Skeptic

2. Yevgenia’s Black Swan

3. The Speculator and the Prostitute

4. One Thousand and One Days, or How Not to Be a Sucker

5. Confirmation Shmonfirmation!

6. The Narrative Fallacy

7. Living in the Antechamber of Hope

8. Giacomo Casanova’s Unfailing Luck: The Problem of Silent Evidence

9. The Ludic Fallacy, or the Uncertainty of the Nerd

Part II – We Just Can’t Predict: The Scandal of Prediction

10. We Just Can’t Predict. The Scandal of Prediction

11. How to Look for Bird Poop

12. Epistemocracy, a Dream

13. Appelles the Painter, or What Do You Do If You Cannot Predict?

Part III – Those Gray Swans of Extremistan

14. From Mediocristan to Extremistan and Back

15. The Bell Curve, That Great Intellectual Fraud

16. The Aesthetics of Randomness

17. Locke’s Madmen, or Bell Curves in the Wrong Places

18. The Uncertainty of the Phony

Part IV – The End: How to Get Even with the Black Swan

19. Half and Half, or How to Get Even with the Black Swan

20. Epilogue: Yevgenia’s White Swans

Postscript Essay – On Robustness and Fragility

21. Learning from Mother Nature, the Oldest and the Wisest

22. Why I Do All This Walking, or How Systems Become Fragile

23. Margaritas ante Porcos

24. Asperger and the Ontological Black Swan

25. (Perhaps) the Most Useful Problem in the History of Modern Philosophy

26. Fourth Quadrant: The Solution to That Most Useful of Problems

27. What to Do with the Fourth Quadrant

28. Ten Principles for a Black-Swan-Robust Society

29. Amor Fati: How to Become Indestructible

People also search for:

the black swan the impact of the highly improbable audiobook
    
the black swan the impact of the highly improbable goodreads
    
the black swan the impact of the highly improbable quotes
    
the black swan the impact of the highly improbable analysis
    
the black swan the impact of the highly improbable amazon

Tags: Nassim Nicholas Taleb, The Black Swan, The Impact, the Highly Improbable